Mortgage Experts Agree on Rate Increase
Each week, national surveys such as bankrate.com gather feedback
from mortgage experts to get a sense of what direction mortgage
rates are moving.
Two surveys are conducted to create a deposit index and a mortgage
index. A panel of at least 100 field experts are reached, including
mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers, lenders and other industry
professionals that have a thorough knowledge or expertise in providing
residential first mortgages to consumers. The experts’ hypotheses
along with current data give a fairly accurate report of the mortgage
rate trend and where it is headed.
This week, Nov. 18-24, 2004, mortgage rates are predicated to
rise in the near future. They will definitely not fall, according
to experts. This makes the chance of a decline in the mortgage
rate zero percent, the chance of an increase in the rates 57 percent,
and the chance that they stay the same 43 percent.
Over half of experts think rates will rise in the next forty
days or so, and others believe they will stay the same, give or
take two points. No one thinks the rates will fall.
Informants added comments that mentioned the inevitability of
an increase in rate, the insignificance of deposit rates on affecting
the mortgage rate, the threat of inflation and the decrease in
dollar value pushing long-term rates up. Some believe that this
rate will rise drastically while others think the rate will only
move slightly. Those that say it will remain steady are of the
opinion that there are no factors to teeter it at the present
The survey does not get into the consequences or effects of these
rate changes, if correct, but other industry sources go into further
depth on the expected problems that accompany these trends, both
in the market and in the economy. Gaining an awareness of the
predicted trends and the possible effects is wise for consumers
who are affected by these mortgage rate changes.